Human Factors

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases, like COVID-19, are on the rise. Can you identify patterns between population density and COVID-19 cases and identify factors that could help predict hotspots of disease spread?

Eden

Summary

Eden is a plataform that predicts risk zones based on HDI and suggests preventive measures to improve the region's recover.

How We Addressed This Challenge

The Human Development Index developed by the UN is an important measure to assess the quality of life and economic development of the population, the use of access to education, health and the standard of living of residents, based on per capita income. The use of a standardized index at the global level, associated with direct human factors, allows scalability of the project so that it is adapted to other epidemiological diseases, in addition to being a vector of inspiration for new solutions.

How We Developed This Project

Eden is a platform that predicts risk zones based on the HDI and suggests preventive measures to improve the region's recovery over time. Identifying the correlation between HDI and countries' recovery time, where a higher HDI results in faster recoveries, the platform becomes a powerful observation tool due to the predictions and preventive measures provided.

For predictive analysis of the risks of contagion of the disease and recovery time, the method will be based on the comparison between the HDI and statistical data referring to the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, where the result is expected to reflect the lower the HDI , the greater the exposure to the risk of spreading the disease. To suggest possible solutions, a method that takes into account the indicated risk will be used, correlating with age, social and income data to determine solutions linked to the longevity, health / education and economic index, respectively. These analyzes are applicable to Countries, States and Municipalities.

In view of the applied methodology, it was noticed that countries with a lower HDI, such as Brazil [0.69], indicated a high and critical risk, in addition to a prolonged recovery time. As a possible solution, we looked at social issues related to the health and education index.

In countries with a high HDI, such as Australia, the indicated risk remained low and possible solutions related to the maintenance of basic care.

The solution was validated using Google Colab to perform the metrics.

Because it is based on scientific research, our solution is a reliable source of data. Its recommendations are intended for information, so that it has a positive impact, both in prevention and in the creation of preventive strategies by the competent bodies and institutions, minimizing the impacts of the pandemic, taking into account human factors.

Data & Resources
  1. Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (sedac), A Data Center in NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) — Hosted by CIESIN at Columbia University. Retrieved on May 31, 2020, from: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/
  2. CORONAVIRUS RESOURCE CENTER, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. Retrieved on May 31, 2020. From: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
  3. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTS, United Nations Development Programme. Retrieved on May 31, 2020. From: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
  4. IPEADATA, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada do Brasil. Retrieved on May 31,2020. From: http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspx
  5. THE NEW YORK TIMES. How the Coronavirus Pandemic Unfolded: a Timeline. Retrieved on May 31, 2020. From: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html
  6. BBC. Coronavirus: Greatest test since World War Two, says UN chief. Retrieved on May 31, 2020. From:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52114829
  7. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DATA STORY, Covid-19 And Human Development: Exploring global preparedness and vulnerability. Retrieved on May 31, 2020, from: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/covid-19_and_human_development.pdf
  8. CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION API. Smartable AI Developer Program. Retrieved on May 31, 2020, from: https://developer.smartable.ai/api-details#api=coronavirus&operation=news
  9. http://www.atlasbrasil.org.br/2013/pt/radar-idhm/
  10. https://www.br.undp.org/content/brazil/pt/home/presscenter/articles/2019/desenvolvimento-humano-no-brasil-tem-leve-crescimento-entre-2016.html
  11. Brazil's Data Reference: https://brasil.io/dataset/covid19/caso_full?format=csv
  12. Global HDI: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
  13. https://imgur.com/irBpUsY
  14. https://imgur.com/8FSdVwd
  15. https://imgur.com/RJKKy7M
  16. https://imgur.com/mgoCFHk
  17. https://imgur.com/WqhW36F
  18. https://imgur.com/SN8dWZR
  19. https://imgur.com/tqRtdud
  20. https://imgur.com/bz9B7zR
  21. https://imgur.com/CXFOxHK
  22. https://imgur.com/I6V5I4Y
  23. https://imgur.com/txLaPUE
  24. https://imgur.com/iNU6dnM
Tags
#zonerisk #hdi #prediction #prevention
Global Judging
This project was submitted for consideration during the Space Apps Global Judging process.