The main factor why COVID-19 is spreading is because of the lack of an advanced contact tracing system. It is hard to pinpoint where the virus had spread. But with our system, it will automatically contact trace PUI through timestamps data and categorize them on who should be tested first based on contact data thereby saving test kits. It'll utilize real-time test results data to constantly contact trace and every PUI will receive a message to stay at home until tested. It also utilizes humidity data from satellites to detect vulnerable areas and if it is 80% humid in that area, people will be advised to not go out since infection rate is highest on areas that are 80% humid and above. The humidity data is very important because studies had shown that coronaviruses are still active even after 2 days when humidity is higher than 80% and lower than 20%. Under 50% humidity, only less than 1% of the viruses survives after 48 hours.
#WHOLE MECHANISM
First, we looked for an idea that would effectively flatten the curve fast. We used QR method wherein it is the user who will have a QR code (that contains their personal info) and the establishments will scan a person's entry and exit, so the user will not need the internet. It could either be printed or saved as image in phone. The citizen's QR code could either be requested from the local government generated by our system or they can apply online through the website we made. The establishments, on the other hand, will apply their business through an app we made, which creates a database for them from which we can access all of the citizens' timestamps of entry and exit. This means that the system only requires the establishments to have internet and not the end-user, and they can even use a regular smartphone.
Now that we have a database that stores all timestamps, the website we made is an automated contact tracing system that draws data from the timestamps database and real-time COVID data of positive individuals. If one person tested positive, our system will automatically contact trace everyone he was in the same place and time with. It will then categorize all possible PUIs by category depending on the time stamp such as first-contact until fifth-contact. Third-contact PUIs are the people that Second-contact PUIs had came across with. We did this so it will be able to save testing kits since all of the third-contact of a "negatively-tested" second-contact will also turn negative. It works in real-time by drawing data from local testing centers.
If a person was traced by the system to be now a PUI, he will be messaged through SMS to stay at home and observe quarantine until tested or declared safe. That includes his PUI category. Through this, flattening the curve will really be possible in just a month. The satellite data feature that we included will process EarthData and look at humidity percentage. Coronavirus thrives even for 48 hours with humidity above 80% and below 20%. If the satellite data detects that humidity level is >80 or <20, then it will send an automatic SMS to every citizen in that area, that everyone should stay at home because of High Contracting Rate due to humidity.
#Satelite Analysis
The transmission rate, R, of COVID19, can be found by the best fit for an SIR model. Thus, it is an empirically determined value found from an assumed mathematical model to describe measured data. Once known, R can be used to predict outbreaks. But much of the dependence of R on environmental factors and weather conditions is not known. NASA data can help this process. Together with measured rates of infection from testing that confirms cases, local laws for social distancing and PPE protocols, knowledge of compliance with those laws, and finally, the NASA data, multivariate statistical analysis can be performed for regional, seasonal R values found from fitting measured data to a SIR Model.
Humidity can play a role in several ways. Aerosols with SARS-CoV-2 convectively move the virus allowing it to spread. If aerosols are quickly building mass, they will precipitate faster. Temperature factors are not well understood for SARS-CoV-2 lifetimes, but they do influence how rapidly they move. Weather conditions also change human behavior which in turn changes their social distancing and frequency of contact. Air pollution reduces the body's immune system and makes it, in particular, more susceptible to respiratory illness, leading to a higher incidence of comorbidity conditions in the population.
#Implementation
We are having a continuous meeting with the city and provincial government and looking to launch on the 1st or 2nd week of June to implement our system. Because of how advanced and comprehensive the system is in contact tracing, we are confident it can flatten the curve of new cases in just around or less than 4 weeks due to its predictive algorithm.
#Softwares
Website System: Laravel, PHP
Database:MySQL,PHP
Application: Flutter, Android Studio
Satellite Data: MATLAB
#NASA DATA for COVID19 Transmission Rate
Ground Temperature, Insolation, UV Index, Surface Relative Humidity, Water Column, Cloud Cover, Precipitation Rate, Terrain Type, Population Density, Air Pollution, Surface Wind
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1VrmI5itQxdunDymyjElEL8U37hooEStSp5u4RSFvdCo/edit#slide=id.p5